Econometric analysis and forecasting of R&D intensity as a basis for a comparative study of Slovakia and the EU27 towards 2030 targets

Abstract

This paper examines the development and future prospects of research and development (R&D) intensity in the Slovak Republic, compared with the EU27 average, in the context of the Europe 2020 framework and the 2030 Agenda targets. R&D intensity, expressed as a percentage of GDP, is analyzed as a key determinant of innovation performance and industrial competitiveness. The study is based on a comparative statistical analysis of Eurostat data covering the period 2010-2024 and on econometric forecasting using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. Linear regression models were constructed to estimate average annual growth rates and project R&D intensity through 2030. The results reveal a persistent structural gap between Slovakia and the EU average. While the EU27 exhibits an average annual increase of 0.038 percentage points, Slovakia records only 0.024 percentage points. Under the current linear trend, R&D intensity is projected to reach 2.44% of GDP in the EU and 1.14% in Slovakia by 2030, indicating that neither the European 3% target nor the Slovak national target of 2% is likely to be achieved. A paired t-test further confirms the existence of a statistically significant innovation gap. The findings highlight the need for stronger private-sector participation and more effective allocation of public resources, particularly in applied research and advanced materials development, as essential preconditions for enhancing technological upgrading and long-term competitiveness.